Fertilizer prices will likely stay elevated through 2028, according to CoBank's latest outlook, extending a multi-year run of high input costs that has squeezed farm margins since the 2022 spike.

CoBank, the cooperative lender serving rural America's farm credit system, framed the forecast as a structural condition rather than a temporary peak. For growers, the message is direct: budget planning for the 2025 through 2028 crop years should assume fertilizer remains one of the costliest line items per acre.

Why does the forecast matter for farm margins?

Fertilizer is typically the largest variable input expense for row-crop producers, often ranking with seed and crop protection chemicals at the top of per-acre budgets. When fertilizer prices stay high while commodity prices soften, margins compress from both directions.

The 2028 horizon gives the forecast weight. A one-season price spike can be absorbed through timing purchases, negotiating volume discounts or drawing on working capital. A four-year stretch of elevated prices forces different decisions:

• Locking in input financing earlier in the purchasing cycle
• Revisiting fertilizer application rates against agronomic yield response
• Comparing cash-rent bids against realistic cost structures
• Evaluating nutrient-management plans that stretch each applied unit

CoBank's lending position makes the call significant. The institution finances cooperatives and agribusinesses across the farm credit system, and its outlooks inform both lender risk models and cooperative purchasing strategy. When CoBank flags a multi-year cost trend, rural retailers and farmer-owned supply cooperatives adjust inventory and prepay programs accordingly.

What did CoBank actually say?

The report's core projection: fertilizer prices are likely to remain elevated through 2028. The lender did not frame the current market as a spike that will revert to pre-2021 levels in the near term.

That distinction matters for how growers read condition reports versus forecasts. A price forecast is a forward-looking estimate, not a harvested result. Growers should track actual retail quotes, wholesale benchmarks and cooperative prepay offers against the projection as each purchasing window opens, rather than treating 2028 as a settled outcome.

How should growers respond?

Input buyers have several levers when prices stay high. CoBank's outlook effectively extends the case for each:

• Watch purchasing windows. Elevated does not mean flat; seasonal dips still create buying opportunities within a high-price range.
• Use cooperative pricing. Member-owned supply co-ops can aggregate volume and pass savings through patronage.
• Test soil and apply precisely. Matching nutrient applications to measured crop need protects yield while trimming purchased volume.
• Compare financing costs. Input loans and prepay terms carry different effective rates when prices stay elevated for years, not months.

What's the bottom line?

CoBank's forecast puts growers on notice that the input-cost environment of recent seasons is expected to persist through 2028. Producers who plan multi-year budgets around elevated fertilizer prices, rather than waiting for relief, hold the stronger position if the projection holds — and the better hedge if it doesn't.