Roughly 5 million working-age UK adults could fall below safe levels of selenium, potassium and iron if GLP-1 drug penetration reaches 15% of adults while crop nutrient density declines a further 15%, according to new scenario modelling from venture capital firm Deep Science Ventures (DSV).

The figures come from DSV's "Hollow Harvests" report, which argues that decades of breeding for yield over nutrient density, fertilizer regimes that boost biomass faster than mineral uptake, and ongoing soil degradation have steadily eroded the nutritional value of crops. Elevated carbon dioxide levels could cut wheat protein by up to 12.7% and zinc by 36.5% by 2050, the report notes, while a third of the world's soils are already degraded.

"However, we may be approaching a tipping point that requires urgent attention," DSV predicts.

Why do GLP-1 drugs change the picture?

Until now, declining nutrient density has been masked by rising global calorie supply: people simply ate more. GLP-1 weight-loss drugs break that buffer by cutting calorie intake, exposing the shortfall in mineral and vitamin content per unit of food.

DSV senior associate Will Summers, PhD, says the drugs — together with concern over ultra-processed foods (UPFs) — are forcing food companies to rethink how they compete. "Food companies are having to think about how they compete on 'nutrition per calorie' basis for an increasingly large market segment, in a way that hasn't been the case before," he said.

"Every UK supermarket is worried about losing business due to the drop in demand for hyper-palatable UPFs and is thinking about how to create new markets to fill the void," he added, predicting "a huge segment" of consumers willing to pay more for nutrient-dense food rather than volume.

Should nutrient density become a breeding target?

If the problem is to be tackled at source, plant breeding is the obvious lever, but most breeders still prioritize yield, disease resistance and drought tolerance. Policy could shift that, Summers argues: "I would love to see the government simply say a variety will not be approved for market unless it reaches this necessary baseline level, which provides a starting point."

He points to HarvestPlus, which develops biofortified, climate-smart crops, as proof that baseline breeding targets for nutrient density "can easily be achieved without compromising yield." UK programs such as Healthy Start, he notes, are constrained when the nutritional payoff of eating whole foods is itself diminishing.

What role does soil health play?

Summers draws a sharp distinction between labels. Citing reviews including work by Alan Dangour, he says organic production does not correlate with nutritional quality, while the evidence for regenerative practices is stronger. "The key thing is soil health, regardless of what practices best deliver it," he said.

Paired farm trials controlling for crop and environmental variables found improved soil health delivered 10–35% uplifts in nutrient density across a set of nutrients. But he cautions that climate, soil, management and genetics interact, and good soil can be undermined by genetics or fertilizer practices that constrain density.

When can growers get paid for density?

Routine measurement is the bottleneck, but Summers sees it closing fast. Hyperspectral imaging for vegetables and antibody-based approaches for cereals are making testing cheaper and more scalable. Startups such as Edacious, which raised $8.1 million in seed funding to measure and map nutrient density in whole foods, are building the verification layer buyers would need to specify density in contracts.

"I don't think we're far off," Summers said. "If GLP-1s provide that activation energy for competing on nutrition per calorie... I think we could suddenly see the incentives come into place."

He acknowledges the transition will take time: "The pathway to a future where growers see an ROI on nutrient density itself will take time." Once food companies compete on nutritional quality and measurement infrastructure matures, he expects value to move upstream to growers — potentially creating the first genuine market price for what crops contain, not just what they weigh.