Grain prices are set to close higher for the fourth consecutive week, according to Marine Link, as Chinese buying and adverse US weather tighten the supply outlook.

Two forces are driving the move. Import demand from China continues to absorb available export supplies. At the same time, weather concerns in key US growing regions threaten to trim yields before harvest results are confirmed.

The combination matters for growers and buyers alike. Sustained Chinese purchases lift export basis at US Gulf and Pacific Northwest terminals, which widens the basis premium country elevators can pay. Weather risk adds a second layer: condition reports are not harvested results, and any weather-driven premium built into futures now rests on forecasts rather than weighed grain.

For input planners, a four-week rally changes the math on margins. Higher futures prices improve the revenue side of the 2025 balance sheet for farmers with unsold bushels, but they also raise the cost of any deferred coverage for end users — feed mills, ethanol plants and flour millers — that delayed pricing. Merchandisers who sold basis against unpriced futures face added margin calls as the board climbs.

A rally of this length invites scrutiny. Four consecutive weekly gains often coincide with speculative length building in managed-money positions, and rallies driven jointly by demand and weather can reverse quickly when either leg weakens. Chinese buying is reported, not contracted in full, and weather concerns remain condition-stage risk until combines roll.

Traders will watch whether Chinese demand holds through the coming reporting window and whether US weather stress shows up in the next round of crop condition scores. Until then, the market is pricing expectation, not bushels.