Higher input costs became the top concern for 52% of U.S. producers in the September Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, a record high in the survey's history. The headline index fell 12 points, from 135 in August to 123, with the Index of Current Conditions shedding 18 points.

The survey of 400 farmers, conducted Sept. 14-18, captured a widening gap between near-term anxiety and longer-term confidence. The Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index climbed 5 points to a new high of 168, while the Index of Future Expectations dropped 9 points. More respondents expected their operation to be worse off financially a year from now (35%) than better off (22%).

"Producer sentiment this month reflects a growing divide between concerns about the near term and expectations for the longer term," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "While higher costs and financial pressures are clearly shaping producers' views of current conditions, strong expectations for farmland values point to a more positive outlook for some aspects of the agricultural economy."

How are farmers reading current financial conditions?

The Farm Financial Performance Index slid 13 points, from 103 in August to 90, signaling a negative tilt on near-term margins. The Farm Capital Investment Index dropped 6 points to 39, a level that historically tracks with deferred equipment and infrastructure purchases.

What are producers expecting on cash rents and cover crops?

A separate set of questions for corn and soybean producers found 73% expect cash rents to stay flat in 2027. Of the 22% projecting higher cash rents, about 47% anticipated an increase in the 0% to 5% range. Cover crop adoption also registered: 46% of September respondents said they currently plant cover crops, with roughly one-third of those users reporting more than 10 years of continuous use and 15% planting on a majority of their acreage. Another 22% said they have planted cover crops in the past.

Where do soybean exports and Brazil competition stand?

On U.S. soybean export prospects over the next five years, 37% of corn and soybean growers projected growth, while 10% expected declines. Just under 20% said they were not concerned about the U.S. competitive position relative to Brazilian production, leaving roughly four out of five producers flagging at least some worry about South American competition.

Why is the "right direction" reading notable?

The September barometer also included a continuing tracking question on national direction. The share of producers answering that the U.S. is headed in the "right direction" averaged 71% in the final six months of 2025 and 62% in the first six months of 2026. That share held between 51% and 54% in July and August, then slipped below 50% in September — the first time the threshold has been crossed since the question was introduced in July 2025.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell 1 point to 126. Respondents cited alternative investments, inflation and interest rates as the three factors most likely to influence farmland values over the coming year.

With the October survey window set to follow USDA's crop production update and any further moves in fertilizer and diesel markets, the divergence between current-condition pessimism and long-horizon land-value optimism will be the next data point to watch in Purdue and CME Group's November release.