Mexico purchased about $30.6 billion in U.S. agricultural products in 2025, and Canada added roughly $28.7 billion — a combined $59.3 billion, or nearly 35% of total U.S. agricultural exports, according to USDA trade data. That is the exposure now on the table as the United States, Mexico and Canada entered a consequential new phase of agricultural trade negotiations in October 2026, with Washington pursuing changes to the USMCA framework.

Farm leaders from all three countries are calling for long-term certainty. The stakes reach well beyond trade diplomacy: changes to market access, tariffs or trade rules could quickly affect commodity prices, livestock sectors, planting decisions, processing investment and farm profitability across the United States.

The relationship supports more than export headlines. Co-ops, processors, grain elevators, livestock operations and transportation companies all rely on predictable cross-border demand.

What drove the 2025 export records?

Mexico remained the single largest market for U.S. agricultural exports in 2025. Corn, soybeans, pork, dairy and poultry all posted record U.S. export values to Mexico, underscoring how deeply the two agricultural economies are connected.

For producers in the Corn Belt and livestock sector, that demand shapes local basis, grain movement, feed markets, processing capacity and the ability of buyers to make longer-term purchasing commitments. Mexico has developed into the leading foreign destination for U.S. corn, giving states across the Midwest and Great Plains a major outlet for their production.

Mexican consumers and processors are also major customers for U.S. pork, dairy and poultry, linking feed grain demand directly to animal agriculture. Any durable agreement that preserves market access could support several parts of the agricultural economy simultaneously rather than benefiting a single commodity.

Why could Mexico move faster than Canada?

Expectations are building that Washington could reach an understanding with Mexico before resolving its more difficult trade questions with Canada. U.S. and Mexican officials have spent 2026 discussing:

• agriculture and economic security
• rules of origin
• steel and aluminum
• labor issues
• stronger North American supply chains

A deal, however, should not be treated as complete until governments announce specific terms. The details will matter more than the political headline, particularly if some agricultural disputes are deferred to additional negotiations.

Canada presents a different set of challenges. Dairy tariff-rate quotas, market access and other long-running agricultural disputes remain important issues for U.S. farm organizations. Dairy producers have argued that the practical implementation of Canadian market-access commitments has not always delivered the commercial opportunities anticipated under USMCA. Progress with Mexico would not automatically produce a breakthrough with Ottawa, leaving open the possibility that negotiations advance at different speeds.

What does trade uncertainty mean for farm margins?

Producers are already managing volatile commodity prices, elevated input costs, interest expenses, crop insurance decisions and capital investments in equipment and precision agriculture. Trade uncertainty adds another layer of risk because changes in tariffs or market access can alter export demand, transportation costs and projected farm revenue.

That uncertainty can also influence investment by processors, elevators and co-ops whose facilities are built around expectations for long-term grain, oilseed and livestock flows.

The regulatory calendar gives farm organizations another reason to stay engaged. The U.S. Trade Representative has opened the public process connected with the next stage of USMCA consideration, with comments and requests to testify due January 12, 2027. The agreement remains in force while negotiations continue — an important distinction for producers and agricultural businesses making marketing and investment decisions today.

Commodity groups, processors and exporters will use the process to argue for predictable market access and rules capable of supporting investments with horizons measured in years rather than individual crop cycles.

What happens next?

The central issue for U.S. agriculture is larger than whether every existing provision remains unchanged. Farmers and agribusinesses need a North American trading system that provides durable market access, enforceable rules and enough certainty to plan production and investment.

With nearly $60 billion in annual U.S. agricultural exports going to Mexico and Canada, the outcome could influence commodity demand, acreage decisions, livestock margins, processing capacity and supply chain investment well beyond 2027. A Mexico agreement could be the first major signal of where that system is heading.