Irish grain prices have risen by approximately €20/t year-on-year, yet many tillage farmers still recorded very tight margins after harvest 2026 — because poor yields, not market returns, did the damage. That is the initial analysis from Teagasc, the state agriculture and food development authority.

Yield variability across all crops, driven by drought, sits at the centre of the problem. Rising input costs over the past 12 months — fertiliser, fuel and labour — compounded the pressure on farm margins.

Teagasc tillage specialist Shay Phelan commented: "Yields were very variable across all crops. And the impact of the drought made all the difference."

He walked crops of spring barley before harvest that yielded moderately well. Others, he said, "did not perform well at all."

"But, across the board, there is evidence that winter barley crops were badly impacted by the drought," Phelan said.

What is working for growers?

Winter oilseed rape stands out as the one clear success story in Irish tillage over the past two years. The economics are price-led rather than output-led.

"Yields were moderate. But it is the strong price of oilseed rape that is driving the success of the crop at the present time," Phelan explained.

Whether that translates into a bigger national acreage in 2026/2027 is open to question. "That may not be the case," he stressed, because rotation restrictions may limit additional planting opportunities for rape in certain parts of the country.

What are the risks in this season's winter planting?

Planting of winter cereals is moving ahead quickly, particularly on larger tillage farms. Growers with moderate acreages of barley and wheat to plant will be in the fields over the coming days, Phelan said.

But early planting carries costs as well as risks:

• The threat of Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus (BYDV) remains high; the disease hit cereal crops badly in spring.
• Disease-tolerant winter barley varieties and insecticides against aphid populations are available, but "even combined, neither approach can offer full insurance cover, where Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus is concerned."
• Grass weed populations are "harder to control" in early sown winter cereals.
• There is a greater risk of lodging later in the season — and all of this adds to the cost incurred by growers.

For context, Irish merchants have also confirmed harvest 2026 pricing: Dairygold has set grain prices covering more than 100,000t of Irish grains, while Tirlán has confirmed its own pricing for the same harvest.

The margin lesson from this season is blunt. "Harvest 2026 has shown that final yield is a key driver of crop margins," Phelan said.

Growers weighing early drilling in the coming days will be balancing BYDV exposure, weed control costs and lodging risk against the yield gains that — as this harvest demonstrated — ultimately decide whether a crop turns a profit.