The U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to its smallest size since 1951 — nearly 40% below its 1970s peak — according to figures cited by South Dakota rancher AJ Munger in an opinion piece this week. Munger operates Eagle Pass Ranch east of Highmore with his wife and two children and has marketed bulls nationwide for more than 30 years.

What did the August tariff move deliver?

The administration expanded the tariff-rate quota for lean beef trimmings by 300,000 metric tons in August to ease retail beef prices. Cattle futures fell to eight-month lows within days, Munger wrote. "Ranchers were devastated, betrayed, they felt, by a president rural America has backed in three straight elections," he said.

How much did grocery prices actually move?

The American Farm Bureau Federation tracked 80% lean ground beef at 41 grocery stores across 22 states beginning September 1, the day after lower-tariff product arrived. Over three weeks, the average price dropped from $7.29 to $7.13 a pound — a 16-cent, roughly 2% decline. At 30 of the 41 stores, the price did not change at all.

How deep is the supply gap?

Munger framed the shortfall as structural, not cyclical. Drought, input inflation and thin margins pushed the national inventory to its 1951-era floor. Between 2017 and 2022, 106,000 cow-calf operations folded nationwide. "You cannot administratively fix your way out of a structural problem," he wrote. "That takes Congress, and the answer starts with grass."

What does the RANCH Act propose?

Co-led by Sens. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), the bill offers a voluntary pathway to convert up to 20 million acres of marginal cropland into grazing land. That capacity could eventually support 2 million to 4 million additional head of cattle, Munger estimated.

Program features:

• Cost-share on a portion of establishment expenses
• Annual rental payments set at 75% of the county average
• Signing incentives and priority access for beginning ranchers

Backers include the South Dakota Cattlemen's Association, the Minnesota State Cattlemen's Association, Pheasants Forever and the National Wildlife Federation.

Why tie cattle policy to cropland policy?

Munger argues the same acres solve three pressures at once. Converting marginal cropland to grass tightens a global grain and oilseed surplus weighing on row-crop prices, trims fertilizer and diesel demand as input costs spike, and gives row-crop operators a diversification path into livestock.

Iowa's Cattle and Conservation Working Lands Program and North Dakota's Conservation Forage Program already use targeted incentives to convert underperforming cropland into pasture, delivering gains in soil health, water quality and wildlife habitat. Munger called those state efforts proof points for a federal working-lands approach.

What are the political stakes?

Munger credited President Trump and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins for supporting cattle markets but said herd rebuilding demands a longer-term strategy. "Congress doesn't get many chances to pass something that helps row-crop and cattle producers at the same time," he wrote. "This is one of those chances, and Congress and the administration should use every tool available to put it in place quickly."

If the RANCH Act clears both chambers, the cattle herd's 70-year low could mark a turning point. If it stalls, the gap between domestic supply and consumer demand will keep policymakers reaching for trade levers that move futures but leave the cow-calf sector still looking for grass.