USDA raised its corn ending-stocks projection for 2026/27 by 282 million bushels from September, to 1.849 billion bushels, in its latest monthly supply-and-demand update — a build that outweighed every demand increase in the report.

The agency attributed the bigger corn carryout to larger beginning stocks and a larger production forecast. Those supply gains canceled out projections of increased demand across the balance sheet, leaving the surplus larger month over month.

The projected average farm price tells the margin story directly: USDA pegged the 2026/27 corn price at $4.70 per bushel, down from $4.80 in the September estimate. The prior marketing year, 2025/26, averaged an estimated $4.16 per bushel. For growers, the revised numbers point to a second consecutive season of below-$5 corn, with heavier carryout putting downward pressure on basis and on revenue expectations heading into 2026 planting decisions.

Which crops saw carryout raised?

All three major row crops — corn, soybeans and wheat — posted month-over-month increases in projected ending stocks. USDA's October revisions followed the same pattern across the complex:

• Corn: ending stocks up 282 million bushels from September, to 1.849 billion, on larger beginning stocks and production that offset increased demand projections.
• Soybeans: carryout projection also raised on the month, according to the report.
• Wheat: ending stocks likewise moved higher in the October update.

The across-the-board build marks a shift from tighter balance sheets earlier in the projection cycle and will factor into how elevators, exporters and processors position for the 2026/27 marketing year.

What does the higher carryout mean for prices?

The corn number is the one to watch. A 282-million-bushel monthly increase is not a rounding error; it reflects supply growth strong enough to absorb every demand gain USDA identified and still add to the surplus. The 10-cent drop in the projected farm price, from $4.80 to $4.70, tracks that supply-side arithmetic.

Growers comparing the $4.70 projection against the $4.16 estimated average for 2025/26 face a market that has recovered only modestly from current-season lows while stocks accumulate. For operations weighing input purchases, the figures suggest continued pressure to lock in margins where tools allow, since rising carryout historically weighs on both futures and cash basis in surplus regions.

Condition of the numbers

These are projections, not harvested results. USDA's ending-stocks figures are estimates built from survey-based production forecasts and demand models, and they are subject to revision in subsequent monthly reports as actual harvest data replaces projections. The average farm-price figures are likewise midpoint estimates for the full marketing year, not settled market outcomes.

The October figures follow September's update, and the pattern — supplies rising faster than demand — is the second consecutive signal in that direction for corn. Traders and analysts will test the next round of USDA data against actual harvest results and export pace before treating the carryout build as durable.

The next monthly update will show whether the supply growth that drove the corn revision continues to outpace demand, and whether the $4.70 farm-price projection holds as harvest results replace forecasts.