Farm equipment sales fell in September, according to a report from St. Joseph Post. The decline marks a continued pullback in machinery purchases heading into the fourth quarter, the regional outlet reported.

How steep was the September drop?

St. Joseph Post did not publish a single headline percentage in the brief item carried on its news feed. Equipment-sales coverage typically reconciles monthly shipment tallies from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers with dealer survey reads from groups such as AgDirect and the Equipment Dealers Association. Without the underlying table, the September move can only be described directionally.

Readers tracking the ag cycle should treat the report as a sentiment marker, not a verdict. September closes the model year for most row-crop tractor lines and precedes the year-end tax purchasing window, so a softening reading there carries weight into the November and December data.

What does the trend line look like?

Farm machinery unit sales have trended below the 2021-2022 highs for most of the past two years, as dealers and producers absorbed the double shock of elevated build costs and Federal Reserve policy rates above 5%. Combine sales dropped more than 40% from peak in some 2024 monthly tallies, and four-wheel-drive tractor volumes have lagged by similar margins.

The September print adds another data point to that trend. It is not a turning point on its own. It is, however, consistent with the margin picture facing operators across the Corn Belt and Plains.

What is shaping buyer behavior?

Three forces have weighed on replacement demand:

• Crop prices for corn and soybeans have hovered near or below breakeven for cost-of-production growers in large parts of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Nebraska
• New equipment list prices on high-horsepower tractors and combines remain 20-30% above pre-2020 levels
• Dealer inventory of used machinery, particularly late-model used combines, has kept prices on the secondary market soft

What to watch next

The next AEM monthly report, expected in roughly three weeks, will show whether the September softness extends into the year-end buying window. Order intake data from CNH, AGCO and Deere's dealer channels will provide a forward read on first-quarter production schedules.

Reporting by Grace Kim for Agribusiness Wire.