The latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer shows surveyed U.S. farmers naming Brazil's cost advantage as the leading risk to American soybean export competitiveness in 2027, according to Joana Colussi of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Colussi, an ag economist who covers Brazilian agriculture for the center, said the concern surfaced in the barometer's most recent wave of responses. Brazil's current soybean crop is projected to be one of the largest on record, she said — a fact respondents cited when asked to identify the biggest competitive threat to U.S. export share.

What did the survey find?

Farmers answering the barometer pointed to Brazil's cost edge as the factor most likely to weigh on U.S. soybean shipments two marketing years out, Colussi said. The 2027 horizon places the concern past the next U.S. harvest.

"Farmers are concerned Brazil's competitive advantage could have an impact on U.S. soybean exports in 2027," Colussi said, summarizing the response.

Why does the 2027 horizon matter?

Brazil's projected record crop sets up a multi-year test of U.S. export share. The barometer finding is a forward signal, not a current-year export forecast. Growers answering the survey appear to be pricing in two more South American crops before drawing conclusions on trade flows.

Colussi said the cost gap between Brazilian and U.S. producers remains wide enough to shift origin advantage in years of normal weather. The barometer captures what farmers themselves are watching, not what trade analysts model.

What is the Ag Economy Barometer?

The Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer is a monthly survey of U.S. producer sentiment produced by Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture in partnership with the CME Group. Each wave asks respondents about financial conditions, capital investment, and risk perception. The latest release included an open-ended component on global competition that surfaced the Brazil concern.

What about the truncated planting remark?

Colussi's full comment on Brazilian planting was cut off in the original report. The visible text — "It's planting [...]" — points to Brazilian acreage decisions as the immediate lever behind the 2027 concern. Planting progress in Brazil will set the next benchmark for the barometer's export-share question.

What it means for margins

If the 2027 concern materializes, U.S. farmers will see basis compress at Gulf export points as Brazilian offers undercut U.S. FOB prices. Colussi's reading is a sentiment indicator, not a trade forecast. Actual flows will track Brazilian yields, currency moves, and Chinese buying patterns — none of which the barometer measures.

Watch the next barometer release for a follow-up reading. If the 2027 concern persists, expect the center to publish a deeper cost-gap analysis in the months ahead.