More than 90% of Russia's grain export capacity in the Azov-Black Sea basin has gone offline, with all three terminals at the port of Novorossiysk suspending operations last week after Ukrainian drone strikes and navigation restrictions.

The basin accounts for 88% of Russia's maritime grain shipments, and the three Novorossiysk facilities alone moved roughly 25 million metric tons of grain exports. Russia shipped 46.3 million tons through basin ports last season, including more than 29 million tons through Black Sea terminals.

What is actually shut down?

Two Novorossiysk terminals — NKHP and NZT — stopped on the same day last week. KSK, the port's largest facility, followed a day later. Taman halted in late July. Navigation in the Sea of Azov has been suspended since July. Tuapse, the smallest deep-water terminal, is the only Black Sea port still operating, according to SovEcon managing director Andrei Sizov.

Why have global wheat prices barely moved?

Chicago wheat remains below $7 a bushel, equivalent to roughly $257 per metric ton. Sizov noted that traders surveyed six months ago would likely have projected a double-digit Chicago price above $10 a bushel under similar disruption. Instead, the market is pricing in plentiful global supplies, weak demand and an eventual resumption of cheap Russian exports.

"Practically all Russian grain exports through the Azov-Black Sea basin are at a standstill," Sizov said.

Who is bearing the loss?

The export corridor typically runs at peak volumes from August through December. Sizov called hopes of catching up on lost shipments later "overly optimistic," citing winter storms and seasonal freezing of rivers and the Sea of Azov. Grain exports bring about $15 billion annually into the Russian economy.

Farmers, meanwhile, are sitting on a 2026 harvest of nearly 140 million tons.

How bad is the domestic price collapse?

Fourth-class wheat now sells for around 12,000 rubles per ton ($142), down from 15,000 rubles ($177) a year earlier. Russian Grain Union President Arkady Zlochevsky called the level "catastrophic, with enormous losses."

"Storage facilities are filling up every day, while demand has stopped and exporters have practically stopped buying grain," Zlochevsky said.

What happens if financing does not arrive?

Sizov warned that extremely limited export demand will keep pushing ruble-denominated prices lower and could push producers out of business, compounding years of financial strain tied to grain export duties. Zlochevsky said producers lack the cash to sow winter crops for next season.

"There is nowhere to get the money, credit is unavailable and no one is providing advance financing, so farmers are being forced to sell at such losses," Zlochevsky said. "If we do not receive sufficient financing, the winter sowing campaign will fail."

Sizov said the disruption may not be permanent, with some terminals likely to resume, though timing remains uncertain. Whether Russian exporters recover lost volumes before river and sea freeze-up — or carry the inventory into 2027 — will hinge on port restarts and government action on credit access in the weeks ahead.