USDA now projects 2025 sorghum production at 291.075 million bushels, a 3% increase from September driven entirely by a higher yield estimate of 55.7 bushels per acre.

The production gain comes from the yield side of the ledger, not from acreage. Harvested area stands at 5.225 million acres, unchanged in the October calculation. For growers and merchandisers, that distinction matters: basis and crush demand respond differently to yield-driven supply than to acreage expansion.

How much smaller is this crop than last year's?

Despite the month-over-month bump, the crop is sharply below a year ago. USDA puts 2025 production 33% below the prior year, with the shortfall attributed to considerably lower yields rather than fewer harvested acres. A one-third cut in national supply at roughly stable acreage points to weather and agronomic stress during the growing season rather than a planting-decision shift.

What does the higher yield guess mean for markets?

A 3% upward revision, while meaningful, does little to close a 33% year-over-year production gap. End users — feed buyers, ethanol plants and exporters — will still face a materially tighter sorghum balance sheet than in 2025's record-setting comparisons. For Plains growers who held sorghum through harvest, the revised yield figure will shape revenue expectations on already-contracted and unpriced bushels alike.

USDA will continue updating the estimate in subsequent monthly reports, and the next round of figures will show whether October's yield improvement holds as harvest results replace field-condition projections.

(Note: figures in this story reflect USDA's October update as reported by Brownfield Ag News.)