U.S. corn export sales for the most recent reporting week reached 769 million bushels, trailing the year-ago period by 34%, StoneX economist Mike Castle said ahead of USDA's October WASDE release scheduled for noon EST Thursday.

The October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report lands with corn, soybeans and wheat balances dominating trader attention. Castle highlighted the export gap in pre-report analysis.

"Sales are behind last year's pace," Castle said, pointing to the 34% deficit. The 2024-25 corn marketing year began September 1.

What does the October WASDE typically include?

USDA's Office of the Chief Economist publishes the WASDE monthly. The October edition updates U.S. and global supply and demand estimates for the major row crops. Key tables cover:

• U.S. production, harvested acreage and yield
• Domestic use by category
• Export projections
• Ending stocks
• Season-average farm price ranges

The report draws on farmer surveys, satellite-derived yield data, and field observations compiled throughout the previous month.

Why is the corn export gap the lead issue?

The 769 million bushel figure Castle cited represents accumulated and outstanding U.S. corn sales for the current marketing year. The 34% year-over-year decline raises the prospect of a downward revision to USDA's export demand assumption in the October balance sheet.

A slower export pace typically pressures prices by leaving more bushels available for domestic end users, ethanol plants and storage. The figure also has implications for cash basis at river terminals and country elevators across the Midwest, where harvest pressure compounds the demand gap.

What else is in the report?

Beyond corn, traders will parse:

• Soybean production and export demand revisions
• Wheat ending stocks and global competition factors
• Cotton and minor oilseed balance sheets
• Foreign production updates for major exporters

The October WASDE is the second full report of the new marketing year. USDA's late-September stocks report already informed the market, and the October update reconciles field data with prior projections.

How could the numbers move futures?

December corn futures have traded in a tight range through early October. A larger-than-expected yield cut could lift prices; a bigger export reduction could weigh on them. Soybean traders will watch for any sign of demand recovery, while wheat markets monitor winter wheat planting progress and global competition.

The 769 million bushel export sales figure comes from USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service weekly export sales report. The 34% year-over-year gap will be the first number analysts check.

What is the broader context?

The corn export picture sits alongside the fall harvest, advancing across the Midwest. That seasonal supply pressure compounds the demand gap Castle flagged. Basis at river terminals and country elevators typically weakens during peak harvest weeks, and a soft export book adds another layer of pressure on cash bids.

The October WASDE follows USDA's late-September stocks report. The October update reconciles field data with prior projections. Traders will compare USDA's export assumption with the 34% cumulative gap Castle has flagged.

If the deficit persists into the November WASDE, further revisions become likely. The grain trade will parse USDA's season-average price range, which incorporates balance sheet changes and cash market signals.

The market enters the report with December corn futures holding near recent lows. The 769 million bushel weekly figure and the 34% deficit are the benchmarks analysts will reference when the noon data hits.