By Nathan Brooks

USDA raised its 2026-2027 corn production forecast by 234 million bushels to 16 billion bushels in the Oct. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, citing higher projected yields. Ending stocks climbed 282 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average farm price fell 10 cents to $4.70 per bushel.

The projected national average corn yield rose 2.7 bushels to 181.2 bushels per acre. Harvested grain area held at 88.5 million acres. Beginning stocks increased 173 million bushels on the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report.

Total corn use rose 125 million bushels to 16.3 billion. Exports gained 25 million bushels to 3.3 billion as larger supplies supported the outlook. What does this change for growers' margins? A bigger crop and fatter stocks, with a lower price forecast built in.

Global coarse grain production for 2026-2027 is forecast at 1.589 billion metric tons, down 1 million tons from last month. Foreign corn output is expected to decline, primarily in the European Union, the Philippines and Mexico. The EU corn forecast was cut based on harvest results and revised government estimates; France's production is forecast 38% below the previous year. World corn ending stocks are projected at 280.4 million metric tons, up 8.3 million tons, mostly on larger U.S. stocks.

What happened to wheat?

USDA raised its 2026-2027 U.S. wheat supply forecast by 8 million bushels on higher imports and production. Output is estimated at 1.534 billion bushels — still the lowest since 1970, as higher yields more than offset reduced harvested area.

Domestic use rose 10 million bushels, all in feed and residual. Exports fell 25 million bushels to 750 million on weaker hard red winter and hard red spring sales and shipments, partly offset by higher white wheat exports. USDA cited HRW's continued lack of competitiveness abroad, with prices significantly higher than a year ago.

U.S. wheat ending stocks rose 23 million bushels to 740 million — still 20% below last year. The season-average farm price fell 10 cents to $6.30 per bushel.

Globally, wheat trade is forecast at 209 million metric tons, down 2.8 million tons. Lower exports from Russia and the U.S. were partly offset by gains for Argentina and Canada. Russia's wheat exports are forecast at 40 million metric tons, the lowest in five years, which USDA attributed to logistical disruptions tied to the Black Sea conflict. Global wheat ending stocks sit at 276 million tons, slightly below last month.

Soybeans, cotton and rice

U.S. oilseed production is forecast at 133.6 million metric tons, up 700,000 tons. Soybean production rose 27 million bushels from September to 4.56 billion, on a 0.3-bushel yield increase to 53.1 bushels per acre; harvested area stayed at 85.9 million acres. Ending stocks rose 5 million bushels to 315 million.

USDA held the season-average soybean price at $12 per bushel. Soybean meal is projected at $340 per short ton; soybean oil at 70 cents per pound. Global soybean production is forecast at 442.7 million tons, up 400,000 tons, on higher U.S. output. Global ending stocks rose 300,000 tons to 124.3 million.

Indonesia's 2026-2027 palm oil production forecast was cut 2.2 million metric tons to 45 million tons on months of dry weather. Global palm oil output is set to fall 2.5 million tons from the previous marketing year, with world stocks at their lowest since 2017-2018.

Cotton production rose 2% to 13.44 million bales on a 2% yield increase to 790 pounds per harvested acre, driven by larger Delta crops. Ending stocks jumped 6% to 3.80 million bales; the stocks-to-use ratio hit 27.5%, versus 26.1% in September. The upland farm price fell 1 cent to 77 cents per pound, while the 2025-2026 price firmed slightly to 62.2 cents.

Rice moved the other way. Production was cut to 157.7 million hundredweight on the NASS October Crop Production report, with the all-rice yield down 22 pounds to 7,668 pounds per acre. Ending stocks fell 400,000 hundredweight to 40 million — 32% below a year ago. The all-rice farm price rose 30 cents to $15.20 per hundredweight; long-grain gained 50 cents to $14. World rice ending stocks rose 1.5 million tons to 198.5 million, with trade down 1.3 million tons to 61.4 million on lower Indian exports.

USDA's next WASDE update will show whether the larger corn and soybean crops hold once harvest results replace yield projections.